Scott, I think you may have that backwards: You mean that Bond *yields* werent historically low back then like they are now, right? Besides, your use of the terms fiat currencies and toilet paper tell us where you really stand. Further more rants about the skyrocketing cost of housing and how many people cannot afford their mortgages, with further people saying mortgage payments wont matter because those people can just sell for more when the payments become a problem. Andrew Kravitz It is an honor to be doing this session! There are other points that I cant think of right now. Well start with the answer:No, you should not invest in Bitcoin. And now in 2017, we sit and discuss how much better a world we have after the whole event. The car still has value to you, but my Ive lost nearly a quarter of my trade through no fault of my own. But yes, you should think about getting out, since you have enough now. Firstly, if Jihan is that rich, its probably because he doesnt spend his money. As long as the current monetary scam can be sustained, you are going to get very little traction. Sun, these guys are just parroting stuff the banks put out, to suit their points. You invested in GBTC? Warren Buffet says dont invest in what you dont understand, and I dont understand Bitcoin. Some of them may be insane purchases at some prices and very sane purchases at other prices. Ultimately, Bitcoins functionality is what the digital asset should derive most of its value from. Time will tell. So, I harvest other peoples speculation and I dont lose anything, as I have already harvested more than what I put in. For the first time in history, a machine can own money and make its own purchases. Full anonymity and government evasion will not be one of its features. People then go on to say, If theres even a ONE PERCENT CHANCE that this happens, Bitcoins are severely undervalued and they should really be worth, like, at least a quadrillion dollars each!!. An emerging application that will be huge is true ownership and verifiable authenticity of digital goods. Im just curious what your motivations are for all your comments. Gold bullion has several thousand years of history. For one, your irrational hatred of gold, whose function for human beings you do not seem to understand. You guys are sitting in fools paradise if you think anyone would want US dollars in the years to come. Brent Weaver It also could be a bubble, but the crypto billionaires (the few or the hundreds who end up winning) will still need to buy their Doritos and Gameboys and lambos and helicopters, and Ill own shares in those companies no matter which currency is used. If you're like most Americans, you're a few . Keep plenty for yourself. Holy cow, its wasting that much energy Vijay? MMM says: There is no intrinsic value in cryptocurrencies. One thing in that seems to be missing in this conversation that Bitcoin maximalists will always point out: Do not let your own brain trick you for easy solutions! also remember while the market cap is $230bn at least 20% of coins are lost from the early years. Everything is awesome, we cannot fail, it is great! Definitely not. Again, how is Bitcoin replacing that? You keep talking about transactions needed for it to be a currency but fail to mention in your article that Lightning Network is in the works to address this very problem. January 2, 2018, 5:49 pm. (As Ronnie Chieng says, What IS it!?!?). They may settle to much less, or get close to zero, or they may grow more, no one can really predict this. Or stay in touch with them because they might become millionaires? But boy, are you wrong on this one. Even a significant percentage would be really stupid. Even a war on drugs, which has a physical element, isnt being won by central gov. Fiat currency has neither. Theres nothing fraudulent about Bitcoin its mass hysteria driving demand. Take a look at this shot from the website coinmarketcap.com, and observe the preposterous herd behavior in real life: Fig.1: Various cryptocurrencies, ranked by how many people have been fooled. He is typing in capital letters to draw attention to specific words. No difference there. Something only has value if ppl place a value on it. Now, lets see who is smiling? Good to add this article to the (hopefully) growing list of rational explanations debunking the appeal of what my 76 year-old Grandma, a consummate investor, rightfully calls funny money. It pains me to hear friends, some of whom I have to believe are intelligent people, describing their vast spoils and commitment to cryptos. Nothing is promised. The big players in China use hydroelectric power. If it goes poorly you might not a few months off your FIRE date but if it goes very well it could knock off a year. Youve made a great profit, and you can play with that $28k. MentalArson When you have a more efficient and fluid system that has zero manipulation from individuals, who will go back to a corrupt and manipulative system as it exists today? Although I do get where MMM is trying put an emphasis on the difference in investing and speculation. Thats a really bad equivocation. Im not advocating throwing all your money into crypto (I havent see anyone say that). Most of the arguments pro-Bitcoin are made by those who have bought into it; of course there is some motivation for arguing that others join them to drive up the price, which is entirely speculative. Ive been thinking of doing just that.. And then I put it off for a few weeks, and the price jumps up exponentially. Mr. Money Mustache is the website and pseudonym of 48-year-old Canadian-born blogger Peter Adeney. I can see scenarios where some of these platforms develop staying power and become increasingly valuable for the actual work that they are needed to accomplish. I am laughing my ass out. The real winners of the gold rush were the ones who sold shovels. January 2, 2018, 9:18 pm, MMM, heres a calculator that updates to show the real time profitability of mining various coins: The reason Bitcoin has been driven so high is because its a limited supply. Yeah, I had watched/listened to lots of Andreas stuff as part of the research for this. Do you seriously think that corruption is not a big deal in first-world countries? If cryptocurrency takes off, its much more likely that the winning one hasnt even been created yet, if history holds. Look at all the nations that proposed a EUR based oil exchange, all overthrown (no, not saying those were shining examples of humanity but the prioritization is simply correlated enough). Justin C However, investing in Bitcoin now seems more along the lines of investing in a BBS in the early 90s. im not some conspiracy theorist but I do see the value in a global decentralized currency (none of which is tax evasion btw, Every major exchange currently advises and provides you with a modified 1099-INT for you to file taxes, the IRS as well recognizes bitcoin as owning property and implicated short/long term taxes for owners). There is a very good chance that this article will be the butt of jokes 5 years down the road, when the toilet paper fiat currencies are all passe! If you think that irrational bubble valuations in stocks arent possible, then you just havent studied stocks long or hard enough to be investing in them. I agree with MMM that cryptocurrency in general is kind of dubious, and that Bitcoin is a particularly stupid implementation of it. Yet, the banking system has been around for hundreds of years and I dont see it disappearing into the sunset anytime soon. Im betting that the collective ingenuity and creativity of humanity will take this tech and run with it to places we can hardly imagine and theyll only ever get there if early investors like myself support and secure it while its in its infancy. . January 3, 2018, 8:06 am. I am so happy to see this article! Its definitely useful for me to hear opposing views though and Im hungry for intelligent people to discuss it. Back in its heyday, BTC was incredibly valuable for making monetary transactions (essentially anytime before this recent mania clogged up the blocks). Herd behavior? I say its value is nil. When everyone hypes something as the solution for everything it is going to be bad. Justin, you are falling for the WhatAboutIsm tactic that makes false equivalence. Another interesting side-effect of bitcoin mining: big sales of computer graphics cards, and theft of electricity and cloud computer services. Its cut a few years from our projected FIRE date. Since the Fed can always print as much currency as it wants, I would probably bet on scenario #2 as well, so perhaps were half in agreement. All this bullshit about backed by faith and credit of my country goes out of the window when currencies die someday. Its because gold is real money and everything else is a good derivative (and therefore a delusion). Im sorry MMM, but the consensus is that your fingernails are worth nothing (you couldnt even pay me to hold them), and that 1 BTC is worth more than your bike. Trust IS the value of Bitcoin. Its interesting that you state the high water mark was $700,000, but now its $500k. An Aside: Why should we listen to you, Mustache? If you think its a great investment, go ahead and buy some / a lot we are not stopping you. I suspect it will have uses beyond public currency. 3. Profit! Bitcoin is extremely risky, but it is not dumb and its value is also based on consensus. This will go down in history as the DUMBEST thing Mr. Money Mustache has ever written.it honestly pisses me off how dishonest he is and his he cant see the big picture out of his Statist status quo lenses. Slaves to banks and few elites? January 4, 2018, 10:38 am. But, these days you shouldnt use resistance heaters except for the lightest heating loads, because they are obsolete. No one controls it, so no one can rewrite the data. Ive made more per hour than I do at my day job compared to the effort that I have put into this. Ron Cameron Get out while you can. So theres a positive feedback loop here. Ive personally stayed away having learned these lessons in a past life. No one can say for sure whether or not the problems can be resolved and a highly transactable and stable currency may emerge. And pray blurt out as to why it is bad equivocation? Right now if bitcoin enjoys the lead, what is there to call it stupid. Bitcoin mania isnt different from the dot.com mania or any other mania going back to the tulip mania. Dont know if youve seen JP Searss satire of Bitcoin but I think you might appreciate it. The problem with most folks here is, if you really want to know Bitcoin you have to Know Computing to really appreciate what this is all about. Holding gold is not an investment in this case, it is a hedge. Dit is je geld nu waard als je een jaar geleden Bitcoin, goud of andere assets kocht. It can be forged. I just wish it had come out before the holidays so I could have just pointed family members to it instead of attempting (unsuccessfully!) Im pretty disappointed that no one responded to the points brought up by Mark D. Just more tulip bulb analogies, glib dismissals, etc. You will not own your money more with virtual currencies. Gold is relatively inert (wont rust except for very tiny amounts of oxydation), it is relatively easy to verify its authenticity (its malleable, the good ol biting the coin to see if it dents, you can melt it to look for impurities as well as hard to fake the colour with lead based forgeries). Based on the completely over hyped behavior, Id guess its going the way of sixdegrees.com or maybe myspace if bitcoin speculators are lucky. There are many reasonable prices for these goods that are non-speculative in nature. Subsequently, some 70 years later, Im still using that toilet paper to finance my retirement, buy cars, houses and all sorts of things? Mr. Money Mustache MissSaraBee Do you practice illegal tax evasion as your primary wealth strategy? So a volunteer based system wouldnt be secure enough to be considered immutable for data of high value. 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