Though, the right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. There were huge initiatives while there was nothing happening in the US. I applaud comments from our current SPE President to consider changing the meaning of the acronym to Society for Professionals in Energy so that SPE can remain in the forefront of the energy business. Sensors, displays batteries! Thiel uses the example of New France/the Louisiana Territory, in which the projections of John Law et al that it (and thus the Mississippi Company) would be as valuable as France itself turned out to be correctjust centuries later, with the benefits redounding to the British colonies. Many bubbles can be interpreted as people being 100% correct the futurebut missing the timing (Thiels article on China and bubbles1, The Economist on obscure property booms, Garbers Famous First Bubbles). This seemingly small result led to a modeling revolution for pressure-transient testing. I once was shown some data acquired in a water-injection well that was abruptly shut in from a flow rate of 30,000 BOPD. Does anyone reassure them that the company core business really is about oil and gas? He regarded the chemical attack on disease as a many-fronted battle in which there was a generally advancing line but also many points at which advance was slow or arrested. So for the most part, traders clone popular strategies, but with certain probabilities, theyll randomly explore rarer apparently-unsuccessful strategies. Tesla: instead of just building batteries and selling them to Detroit, we are going to build our own cars from scratch plus own the distribution network. Today, I am not really a proponent of type-curve matching per se, but rather with using the derivative response to recognize flow regimes.13 We now can use data processing originally designed for convolution or deconvolution of downhole pressure and flow-rate data for analysis of production data.14 This approach is particularly effective in wells with permanent gauges. Ummon addressed the assembly and said: I am not asking you about the days before the fifteenth of the month. Also, people started getting lazy and more ignorant. EMPOWERMENT TECHNOLOGY REFLECTION (2nd Quarter) Technology is taking over our world. It is essential to try to have a day that is without the use of technology. So, it seems that rapid progress depends on crazy people. If you look at bicycles, there were thousands of weird models built and tried before they found the one that really worked. As Digital Promise team members who have researched and supported teachers' use of educational technology, we want to recognize and celebrate your successes. Apparently by individuals acting suboptimally on the personal level, but optimally on societal level by serving as random exploration. Directions: To better appreciate the influence and importance of technology to our daily lives, let us do an activity called "Timing Your Technology". Were not sure what. Later: oh, apparently eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials? He viewed the academic-industrial connection as crucial and mutually beneficial. This did not deter Marconi from the attempt, even though he was as unaware of the existence of the Heaviside layer as everyone else. As you might imagine, the use of that term in our fund-raising deck for our first fund struck a chord with a number of our potential investors, who worried that we would back insufferable founders. This last fact is what is most significant. Was the technological power just not sufficient 30 years ago?, [On the Nintendo Power Glove, based on a VPL dataglove design:] 15, JL: Both I and a lot of other people really, really wanted to get a consumerable version of this stuff out. If people dont want to go to the ball game, how are you going to stop them? as Yogi Berra asked.) Bandit settings can further assume that options are restless and the optimal option may drift over time or run out or switch, in which case one also estimates the probability that an option has switched, and when it does, one changes over to the new best option; instead of the regular Thompson sampling where bad options become ever more unlikely to be tried, a restless bandit results in constant low-level exploration because one must constantly check lest one fails to notice a switch. Can I conceive of a team better equipped to address the market needs that might walk through our doors tomorrow? But what about after the fifteenth? I think I had the most fun working in a small group in Anadrill on multilateral-well design, which became the subject of my SPE distinguished lecture.15 After that, I worked with Joe Mach to manage production enhancement for Schlumberger. The speed of light imposes theoretical bounds on rates of information transfer, so that it was once reasonable to wonder whether these limits, in conjunction with physical limits to microminiaturization of switching and conducting elements, might give the biological system an irreducible advantage. Reflection gives meaning to experience; it turns experience into practice, links past and present experiences, and prepares the individual for future practice. The tremendous development in technology and the diversity in this industry have drastically changed the lifestyle of people in society. This will work well for traditional interviews and those stations at the MMI which ask more traditional interview questions. Yet they all seemed to be independently aiming for the same archetypal design. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment are two different things. The loan guarantee from General Dynamics raised our hopes and increased our spirits, but also increased the pressure to finalize the private placement. One thing that. Theyd been known for decades. Is this even nonpublic knowledge at all? I think they were just early. Embed reflection into existing scheduled meetings. Or look at computers: imagine an early adopter of an Apple computer saying everyone will use computers eventually! Yes, but not for another few decades, and in the long run, we are all dead. We may not understand, we may not see, But we must trust, have faith, and believe. Imagine it is 1965. But recent estimates [9, 10], which are summarized in Tables 7.1 and 7.2, indicate that this is not so, and that the balance of advantage in terms of sheer information-handling power may eventually like with the computer rather than the brain. VCs will literally escape through the bathroom to avoid talking to us., Stripe: Banks & online payment processors like PayPal are heavily-regulated inefficient monopolies which really suck; well make friends with some banks and run a payment processor which doesnt suck. UHF RFID systems use frequencies in the 860-960 MHz range and can be used to detect as many as 1,000+ tags per second as far as 10-15 meters from the reader, making them ideal for wide and busy finish lines where several tagged participants may be crossing in a short space of time. Whatever the evidence, the fundamental question VCs are trying to answer is: Why back this founder against this problem set versus waiting to see who else may come along with a better organic understanding of the problem? Why is their knowledge so useless? and there were huge projects that have never been shown to the public to try to make a consumable [VR product], very expensive ones. 3). She currently is participating in the SPE Long Range Planning Committee and cochairing a steering committee for a Middle East Colloquium in Petroleum Engineering Education. The flow rate showed a very clear oscillation, and there was a concern that the meter had malfunctioned. Indeed, the U. S. Department of Transportation estimates that V2V technology may eliminate or reduce the impact of up to 80 percent of crashes involving unimpaired drivers. So how could we find the treasure thats hiding in plain sight? This product supports Secure Hash Algorithm (SHA-256) encryption and authentication technologies, and it includes a Federal . The most informative plan is the most polarizing one.29. why should a podcasting company, Odeo, have led to Twitter? Pillars of the Industry - Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Timing technology are one of the products of this technology. Are we running out of oil and gas? In the current time people can 't imagine their life without technology. Fedex, early on, couldnt make payroll and the founder famously kept the planes flying only by gambling the last of their money in Las Vegas, among other near-death experiences & crimesjust one of many startups doing highly questionable things.12 Both SpaceX & Tesla have come within days (or hours) of bankruptcy, in 2008 and 2013; in the former case, Musk borrowed money from friends to pay his rent after 3 rocket failures in a row, and in the latter, Musk reportedly went as far as securing a pledge from Google to buy Tesla outright rather than let it go bankrupt (Vance2015). I cannot say whether transportation will evolve to a different fuel or whether our industry will evolve to pro- vide energy for more than just transportation. The fact is that each writer creates his precursors. By mid-July our funds were so meager that on Friday we were down to about $21,136.3$5,000.01973 in the checking account, while we needed $101,454.2$24,000.01973 for the jet fuel payment. We managed to get a taste of the experience with something called the Power GloveSony actually brought out a little near-eye display called Virtual Boy; not very good, but they gave it their best shot. Cell phones, computers, radios, watches, and many other devices rely for their success on an electronic oscillator that produces an output with a precise frequency to generate timing pulses and synchronize events. I ended up moving to Japan and working there for many years. Its perfectly obvious. As a research manager with training and experience in pharmaceutical chemistry, a lively interest in medicine, and rapport with the medical community, Hrlein was well positioned to survey the field where chemistry and medicine joined battle against disease. Technology is a subject that you will encounter in the school process starting from elementary till college. Explains how technology is transforming conventional methods of human life, from the way we grow our crops, to how we communicate with one another. Bad ideas that look like bad ideas are also easily dismissed; as the description implies, they are simply bad and thus likely to be trapdoors through which your investment dollars will vanish. Use your time in wise and purposive ways , know the things you 've should do and should not . Yet both of these can be enablers for competitive advantage. You can read books from the past about tech visionaries and note how many of them were spot-on in their beliefs about what would happen (TML is a great example, but far from the only one) but where a person would have been ill-advised to act on the correct forecasts. Smartphones are an even bigger example of this. Google: we are building the worlds 20th search engine at a time when most of the others have been abandoned as being commoditized money losers. Reflection Paper About Technology Reflection Paper #1 It is 2017 and it is safe to say that technology has integrated into daily routines. . How often did I read in the 90s and early 00s about how amazing Japanese cellphones were and how amazing a good smartphone would be, even though year after year the phones were jokes and used pretty much solely for voice? 2. In a counterfactual world, Google went down in flames quite easily because it never hit upon the advertising innovations that saved it, no matter how much you liked PageRank, and anything else is hindsight bias. His story is analogous to mine, I think, and both stories would have been vastly different had we never met. : Theoretical Analysis of Pressure Phenomena Associated With the Wireline Formation Tester,. These days you put some kind of camera on the head and look around in the room and it just calculates where you arethe headsets are self-sufficient instead of relying on an external reference infrastructure. Youve invented taxis & buses. Daily events can be hard to wrap your mind around in some cases. timing the adoption of a new the strategic alternatives open to competing ing real option approach seems to provide a technology. One guy will do most of the work. (All of which was doubtless why Page & Brin tried & failed to sell Google to AltaVista & Excite & Yahoo early on, and negotiated a possible sale with Yahoo as late as 2002 which they ultimately rejected.) reflection-in-action. But it was left to Eckert and Mauchly [16] several years later to rediscover and implement the conceptions of stored programs and conditional jumps, which had already been present in Babbages analytical engine [17]. The people listed in her article have all subscribed to the rigorous analysis that was necessary, and they, as she has, have left their mark in the improved understanding we now often take for granted. Neither of these technologies was a valid alternative to the use of the pressure derivative, but it took a few years for the industry to see it that way. Consider the ill-fated eToys.com or Pets.com: was the investor right to believe that Americans would spend a ton of money online such as for buying toys or dogfood? Gamify self reflection by keeping a running streak using a Google Doc or an app like Streaks. ISSN: 1944-978X (Online)ISSN: 0149-2136 (Print). Ed Boyden on Minding your Brain (Ep. Underlying this view was his definition and differentiation of the relevant disciplines and his belief in their generally excellent condition in Germany. How do you time your startup? This was oft-cited as an example of how technoweenies failed to understand that people didnt really want videophones at allwho wants to put on makeup before making a call?, people offered as an explanation, in all seriousnessbut really, it looks like the videophones back then simply werent good enough. When minimum and maximum score are included in the same model, the coefficient on minimum score disappears. Start small. The right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. Before I answer this question, let me provide a brief narrative about my own career in our great industry. The question constantly asked of anyone who claims to know a better way (as futurologists implicitly do): If youre so smart, why arent you rich? The lesson I draw is: it is not enough to predict the future, one has to get the timing right to not be ruined, and then execute, and then get lucky in a myriad ways. Through it all, he had to take a long view of the value of research, not insisting on immediate results of medical or commercial value. Now BP is Beyond Petroleum. September 5, 2005 By Christine A. Ehlig-Economides The Way Ahead "All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. Right then, I made an incredible blunder. We may want things now, we may want them fast, But God knows best, our future is cast. Lawrence Shepp (attributed; Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered). "If you want to go big in the business world, you need to have the right product at the right time.". Each one plans, invests & commits to push results as hard as possible through to commercial viability, and then pivots as necessary when the plan inevitably fails. Everyone will buy it simply because itll be slightly better., Airbnb: Well max out our credit cards to let people illegally rent out their air mattresses en route to eating the hotel industry. This presents a conflict between personal and social incentives. The progress in technology has good impacts as well as bad implications to people. 1. Batteries is a big one.. These areas shared a number of generic problems and solutions, for example, the need to isolate a substance (natural product, synthetic product, body substance) in chemically pure form, the need to synthesize the substance and to do so economically if it was to go on the market, and the need for pharmacological, chemotherapeutic, toxicological, and clinical testing of the substance. Once, Freds luck at the gaming tables of Las Vegas helped to save the company from financial disaster. In the same vein, the founder has to be able to attract customers to buy the product, partners to help distribute the product, and, eventually, other VCs to fund the business beyond the initial round of financing. Ensemble methods like dropout or multi-agent optimization can follow this pattern as well. About a month later, I went to interview with Flopetrol Johnston in France and met Dominique Bourdet. What he could not door could not do alonewas to direct the day-to-day operations of his troops, that is, to define the critical problems to be solved, to identify the terms of their solution, and to do the work that would carry the day. "Time is an illusion, timing is an art.". End-users love cryptography, right? After taking some time to reflect on your learnings, you'll be ready to create a plan to sustain your technology practice in the school year to come. If an hour of reflection seems like too much, try 10 minutes. In other words, her smartphone is a videophone; videophones used to be one of the canonical examples of how technology failed, stemming from its appearance in the 1964 New York Worlds Fair & 2001: A Space Odyssey but subsequent failure to usurp telephones. First of all, you'd wake up late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists. IBM and Apple both went nearly bankrupt at points, and Microsofts stock has been flat since 1999 or whenever (translating to huge real losses and opportunity costs to long-term holders of it). A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. For instance, in the old days, in order to tell where your head was so that you could position virtual content to be standing still relative to you, we used to have to use some kind of external reference point, which might be magnetic, ultrasonic, or optical. A particularly germane example here is Krafft et al 2016/Krafft2017 (discussion), which examines a large dataset of trades made by eToro online traders, who are able to clone financial trading strategies of more successful traders; as traders find successful strategies, others gradually imitate them, and so the system as a whole converges on better strategies in what they identify as a sort of particle filter-like implementation of distributed Thompson sampling which they dub social sampling. The different pathologies might be: small ones will collectively try lots of strange or novel ideas but will fail by running underpowered poorly-done experiments (for lack of funding & expertise) which convince no one, suffer from small-study biases, and merely pollute the literature, giving meta-analysts migraines. Of course Google was always going to be a huge success because of PageRank and also (post hoc theorizing) Z, Y, & Z, except for the minor problem that Google was merely one of many search engines, great perhaps11 but not profitable, and didnt hit upon a profitable business modelmuch less a unicorn-worth modeluntil 4 years later when it copied Overtures advertising auction, which was its salvation (In The Plex); in the mean time, Google had to sign potentially fatal deals or risking burning through the last of its capital when minor technical glitches derailed vital deals. Moores law really just changes again and again, it re-factors your options in really subtle and interesting ways., Kevin Kelly: Our sense of history in this world is very dim and very short. My partner Chris Dixon describes our job as VCs as investing in good ideas that look like bad ideas. Tariq, Syed M., and Ramey, H.J. Youve seen the curves Gordon Moore discovered. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. The key to reflection is learning how to take perspective on one's own actions and experiencein other words, to examine that experience rather than just living it"[1], stages, reflective . After 7 of my 20 years with Schlumberger, I left transient-test analysis for several other pursuits, and as before, my timing continued to be great. o Activity Report: Timing your Technology. In the current time people can't imagine their life without technology. 2. While each time a failed option is tried, it may seem irrational (how many times must VR fail before people finally give up on it), it was still rational in the big picture to give it a try, as this collective strategy collectively minimizes regret & maximizes collective total long-term returnsas long as failed options arent tried too often. 2. I was expecting smartphones to take off in mid 2004 and was disappointed over and over again. It seems a reasonable guess that the bottleneck will never again lie in hardware speeds and storage capacities, as opposed to purely logical and programming problems. Even the major oil companies give lip service to the claim. And so, we see, in our world around half such attempts fail completely, and 5% or so go to the moon. Progress will happen and can be foreseen long before, but the details and exact timing are too difficult to get right, and the benefits of R&D is in laying fallow until the ripe time and their exploitation in unpredictable ways. The use of lottery grants is one idea which has been proposed, to help break the over-exploitation fostered by peer review; the randomization gives disfavored low-probability proposals (and people) a chance. Only then could the new technology claim to have drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a hundred years earlier. This has historically been less typical in the venture world, but, increasingly, as entrepreneurs take on more established industriesparticularly those that are regulatedbringing a view of the market that is unconstrained by previous professional experiences may in fact be a plus. I loved modeling flow through porous media, and I thought modeling three phases instead of just water would be even more interesting. Total page count over 20. If convicted, he would have faced a prison term of up to five years. ChristineEhlig-Economides, through her eventful career, has been there when many breakthroughs were made that have created a step change in our understanding of the mechanisms that govern the recovery of hydrocarbons. The three outstanding problems in physics, in a certain sense, were never worked on while I was at Bell Labs. And the Media Lab wasnt the only one, General Magic (1989), had an almost identical vision of a networked future powered by small touchscreen devices. and what it isn't. Learning for the sake of learning. And, consistent with the idea that there is a large ineradicable element of chance to it, surveys of startups suggest that while there are individual differences in odds of success (skill), any founder learning curve (learning-by-doing) is small & success probability remains low regardless of experience (Gompers et al 2006/Gompers2010, Parker2011, Gottschalk2014), and experienced entrepreneurs still have low odds of forecasting startups achieving commercialization at all, approaching random predictions in non-R&D-intensive sectors (eg. Stewart Butterfield wanted to make a MMORPG game which failed, and all he could salvage out of it was the photo-sharing part, which became Flickr; he still really wanted to make a MMORPG, so after Flickr, he founded a company to make the MMORPG Glitch which also failed, so after trying to shut down his company and being told not to by his investors, he salvaged the chat part from it, which became Slack. We try thingswe try to create companies, products and ideas, and sometimes they work, and sometimes they change the world. This trend persists when median score is included (Model 7 in Table 3). There are some benefits and advantages associated or linked to having a day that is without the use of any technology. A collection of medium-sized institutes might avoid these by being small enough to still be open to new ideas, while there are enough that any attempt to squash promising research can be avoided by relocating to another institute, and any research requiring large-scale resources can be done by a consortium of medium institutes. However, technology affects ones thinking capacity and development of ideas. Integrated Cognitive Systems, Michie1970 (pg9396 of Michie, On Machine Intelligence): How long is it likely to be before a machine can be developed approximating to adult human standards of intellectual performance? What would you do with it? Its a universal rule. In the hypothetical that you didnt know the name of the company, you mightve bought up a bunch of Google stock hoping that Orkut would be the winner, but while that wouldve been a decent investment (yay!) File Management and Mapping. it would have had nothing to do with Orkut (oops). View 2 SanDisk Extreme Portab. Socially, one wants people regularly tossing their bodies into the marketplace to be trampled by uncaring forces just on the off chance that this time itll finally work, and since the critical factors are unknown and constantly changing, one needs a sacrificial startup every once in a while to check (for a good idea, no amount of failures is enough to prove that it should never be triedmany failures just implies that there should be a backoff). Modern genomics strikes me as a bit like this. I was actually reading some earlier papers. What do the curves say? Also, we have models for horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells, homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs, and a host of useful boundary geometries. Further, on the gripping hand, Michie suggests that such research efforts like Babbages should be thought of not as commercial R&D, expected to usually pay off right now, but as prototypes buying optionality, demonstrating that a particular technology was approaching its ripe time & indicating what are the bottlenecks, so society can go after the bottlenecks and then has the option to scale up the prototype as soon as the bottlenecks are fixed21. The 3 Best Books on Self-Reflection and Introspection. This sounds a good deal like individuals pursuing standard careers & occasionally exploring unusual strategies like a startup; they will occasionally explore strategies which have performed badly (ie. We tried something, or somebody else tried something, and it didnt work. While timing per se seems unrelated to performance, a timing-strategy alignment is. Why are success and failure so intertwined in the tech industry? Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?). My timing on the technical front could not have been better. Once the initial shock of the situation wore off, you'd start getting ready for work. This bears a resemblance to startup rates over time: an initial burst of enthusiasm for a new option, when it still has high prior probability of being the most profitable option at the moment, triggers a bunch of startups selecting that option, but then when they fail, the posterior probability drops substantially; however, even if something now looks like a bad idea, there will still be people every once in a while who insist on trying again anyway, and, because the probability is not 0, once in a while they succeed wildly and everyone is astonished that so, X is a thing now!, In DARPAs research funding and VC, they often arent looking for a plan which looks good on average to everyone, or which no one can find any particular problem with, but something closer to a plan which at least one person thinks could be awesome for some reason. The challenge had always been to come up with a closed-form solution that related to time. Yes, but when I discovered it, it stayed discovered. The problem with timing is that every innovation only has a relatively small window of opportunity that happens when the technology and customers are ready, but there isn't much entrenched competition. Cook calls this cracking the nut. Before coming to Stanford, Ramey and two students at Texas A&M U., Ram Agarwal and Rafi Al-Hussainy, had developed type curves accounting for wellbore storage and skin that enabled well-test analysts to model the early-time transient response using type curves2 (Fig. A RESEARCH STUDY ABOUT "REFLECTIONS OF TECHNOLOGY ENHANCED LEARNING AWARENESS" Nazime Tuncay Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports, North Cyprus Abstract: TEL (Technology Enchanted Learning) helps students to take more control over their knowledge and help them to be more motivated, more self-directed, more organized and more strategic. The researchers used qualitative research approach in this study with phenomenological research design. I knew immediately that Bourdet was really on to something. within the environment where learning is taking place). We were talking about the past: VR wasnt talked about for a long time, right? He is the reason I have had the courage and motivation to continue contributing to an industry that has never been all that eager to take women seriously, and I am the reason he became interested in petroleum engineering. A portion of the output pulse of the microchip laser was incident into the fiber delay line, and then, the backward reflection light induced the formation of the pulse. Whatsoever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might; for there is no work, nor device, nor knowledge, nor wisdom, in the grave, whither thou goest. I remain confident of this: I will see the goodness of the Lord in the land of the living. Your mind around in some cases our spirits, but God knows best our! 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